Kentucky Derby Take Two - Cowboy Cal

Update Monday May 5, 2008: For my post race comments Big Brown - A True Champion

The goddess of wagering is not going to take kindly to this. I changed my mind about the Kentucky Derby.

Friday night I reexamined the prep races, particularly the Blue Grass. My conclusion is that that race, synthetic track and all, is the secret to picking the winner. Cowboy Cal who led most of the way, is my new selection. The conventional wisdom that the published time for the half mile of :49 seconds was slow, very slow.

Cowboy Cal, leading most of the way , worked harder than the winner, Monba.  Pletcher trains both horses and he would not enter Cowboy Cal if he did not beleive the horse could win. But then again Pletcher knows very little about winning the Kentucky Derby.

If I am wrong, I am wrong, but given the racing surface and given the track variant that day, the half mile, adjusted is more like a :47.

In any case, the worst that happens is I now have the opportunity to look foolish on two successive days. Until the start of the race I will be muttering "Cowboy Cal and Smooth Air."

Colonel John, Z Fortune, Bob Black Jack and Gayego will round out my gimmicks. I will drop Recaputuretheglory and add Tale of Ekati.

When the race is over, I will do what most handicappers do. Figure out how close I came to picking the winner, and move on to the next race.

Comments

[warmmidwest]

Another tainted Derby ... we weep for Belle.

[nonheroicvet]

Shoot the runnerup - sounds like some elections around the world.