Kentucky Derby Winner 2008

Update Monday May 5, 2008: For my post race comments: Big Brown - A True Champion

Update Saturday morning May 3, 2008 8:54 am: I changed my mind about the winner.  For those who care: Kentucky Derby Take Two - Cowboy Cal

For the past two weeks friends have asked who I like in Saturday's Kentucky Derby.

Face it, for a hardened horse player, the Kentucky Derby is not the way to make money - you have to start out figuring out who will win the race. Except for an occasional, very occasional,  good year, all it is good for is bragging rights.

Here is the problem:

• Every horse in the race is asked to do something they never did before.
• Few of them have raced against one another more than once.
• They come from all over the country and despite Beyer 'figs,' comparing the varying racing surfaces distances, and weather conditions is a daunting task.
• This year the matter is complicated by three additional factors:
  • Many of the horses raced on artificial surfaces and handicappers are still having difficulty adjusting to the changes in time and pace.  The horses and jockeys are having an even greater problem.
  • The Wood Memorial had an extremely fast pace.
  • The Blue Grass had an extremely slow pace. Those last two races make it difficult to assess the fitness of about six of the entries.
• Rarely does the best horse win the race.

Anyway, I have not had a solid Derby since 2001 when I spent that Saturday morning walking around muttering "Monarchos and Invisible Ink, Invisible Ink and Monarchos." They went on to run 1-2, Monarchos winning,  with Congaree third. The $2 exacta paid over $2,458 and the $1 trifecta paid $6117.

Again, I have not has a winner since.

Undaunted, I offer up Smooth Air despite the fact that he was not 100% at the beginning of the  week.  As Andy Beyer noted, as strong as he looks, Big Brown just does not have the seasoning to go the distance with the furious pace.

I plan to mess around with Colonel John, Z Fortune, Bob Black Jack, Gayego, and Recapturetheglory in the gimmicks.

Comments

[Adam James]

I'll be living in Kentucky about this time next year. I'm not really into horse racing, though. I'll have a couple of mint juleps, though!

Good luck on your picks!

[Kris]

Paul,

After hitting a $6,117 tri, you don't need to have another winner any time soon!

I like Colonel John, Z Fortune and Gayego as well. I like the angle of Cal horses coming off of Polytrack and thought that the Arkansas Derby was the best prep. I also like Adriano. He had a bad dirt race, but he's bred to like the dirt with A.P. Indy on top and Mr. Prospector on the bottom.

[3rd way]

There certainly isn't anything wrong with horse racing, it is an amazing sport to watch. I just would have never pictured you as the type of guy that is into wagering on horse races.

[nonheroicvet]

For me there is no bigger rush than standing at the finish line in a horse race.

[PAUL MCBURNEY]

I HAD BIG BROWN FROM THE START AND I BET 200.00 ON HIM TO WIN. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME I EVER WON ANYTHING.

[stahlz]

Big Brown was considered by many horse people as being a quality animal like Secratariat .
As far as the filly breaking both ankles , this was the same thing that happened to Ruffian years ago .
The male species is bigger and stronger and most all of the big races are seperated by gender .
My vet believes she was all heart and gave more than she should have .It will be found that she had a heart attack and in so doing lost all muscle control and her weight coming down without muscle , ligament and tendon support the ankles broke . Seems very plausible to me!