Paul Soglin: Waxing America

The Democratic Party Nightmare and the 500 Pound Gorilla

When a  candidate loses an upset as Martha Coakley blew the U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts, there is plenty of blame to go around. Assessing responsibility is fine sport. The winner and loser are both in search of blood.

For those of us who wish to learn from the experience, and use it for success in future elections, concentrating on the real source of the defeat is instructive.

There are myriad of causes that led to over 50% of the Bay State voters electing Republican Scott Brown to fill the Senate seat vacated by the death of Ted Kennedy, but the most significant one, the 500 pound gorilla that trumped all others, was that Coakley was a horrible candidate and blew the campaign.

There are other reasons that contributed to the defeat, but if the Democrats focus on them they will be unprepared for next fall's congressional elections:

• Spending - this is one of the two issues that contributed to the Republican victory. Unfortunately for the Democrats, not all of the benefits of the economic stimulus plan are documented.
• Health care - the real victim here. This was a contributing factor but not decisive. Tragically, Coakley's campaign took down more than her and presented every Democrat with a interminable nightmare.
• The White House - declining Obama favorability numbers did not help Coakley, but the real villain was the failure to read the election and get Coakley off her butt. The White House had more at stake than Coakley - health care reform versus her career.
• Tea Baggers, Limbaugh, - There is no question that the constant barrage and pounding took its toll, but it only works against a weak or marginal candidate.

The good news is that the Democrats need not abandon their principles or health care reform. This election should root out their complacency and return them to the vigorous campaigning of 2008.

The bad news is that the Republicans are inspired; they can now take the Democrats off their game plan, and fund raising will flourish.

Every few years we hear the pundits declare that one political party or the other is dead and gone. Fortunately for both Republicans and Democrats, they have each other.

Mark Neumann is Toast

Looks like the Wisconsin Governor's race will be an all-Milwaukee affair in 2010.  Mark Neumann is not getting any traction against Scott Walker and will soon be a laughingstock among the Republican faithful.

The latest problem came in West Bend, where any Republican candidate needs to do well. It seems Neumann made an impromptu stop at the GOP office there with a local reporter in tow, and found the door locked with a Scott Walker sign on it.  Neumann taped one of his own signs on the door and made sure the reporter took his picture doing it.  The resulting West Bend Daily News story is here.

Owen Robinson got the rest of the story from the not-so-happy county GOP chairman, Jim Geldreich, who campaigned for Neumann in 1998, when he narrowly lost to Senator Russ Feingold:

Geldreich: "...Neumann has not attended any of our Washington County GOP events, while Scott Walker has attended numerous events the past few years and has made serious efforts to get to know the Washington County Republicans.  ... I would’ve been willing to meet with Mark Neumann and/or his staff today had I known they were in West Bend, rather than have to deal with this publicity stunt."

Robinson's conclusion:

Neumann hasn’t been in contact with anyone at the Washington County GOP for months and then shows up unannounced and complains about the lack of support?  So what has Neumann accomplished?  He got a story in the paper, but managed to tick off a lot of the GOP loyalists in West Bend in the process.  Not a good move.

Christian Schneider, arguing at WPRI that the Walker - Barrett race will be close enough that it "will most likely come down to that last fish fry in Osceola," may have put it best:

Yes, I am aware that Mark Neumann is still in the GOP field for governor, but there’s a better chance of Liberace showing up and playing at my next birthday party than there is of Neumann winning the GOP nomination.

- Barry Orton

"Lyndon Baines Obama"

The San Francisco Examiner nailed it. The headline is "Lyndon Baines Obama takes Afghanistan reins."

Earlier this year, President Barack Obama described the conflict in Afghanistan as a “war of necessity,” but the plan he announced last night at the U.S. Military Academy bears disturbing reminders of the doomed strategy doggedly pursued by the last Democratic president to commit the U.S. to a major land war in Asia.

Senator Russ Feingold gets it right:

I do not support the president’s decision to send additional troops to fight a war in Afghanistan that is no longer in our national security interest.  It’s an expensive gamble to undertake armed nation-building on behalf of a corrupt government of questionable legitimacy.  Sending more troops could further destabilize Afghanistan and, more importantly, Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state where al Qaeda is headquartered. While I appreciate that the president made clear we won’t be in Afghanistan forever, I am disappointed by his decision not to offer a timetable for ending our military presence there.  I will work with members of both parties and both houses of Congress to push for a flexible timetable to reduce our troop levels in Afghanistan, as part of a comprehensive strategy to combat al Qaeda in the region and around the world.

Representative Tammy Baldwin didn't equivocate:

“In 2001, I voted to authorize the use of force to bring to justice those responsible for the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

I believe our current actions in Afghanistan and President Obama’s proposal for moving forward bear little resemblance to that original, narrowly-focused mission.

I cannot endorse a military surge in Afghanistan and Pakistan.  It’s time for our troops to come home.”

Paul thinks differently, and will post subsequently.

- Barry Orton

Photoshop: The GOP's Secret Weapon Against Feingold

Jim Arndt, at Pretty Important Politics, has discovered a secret GOP plot to aid pumpkin farmer Terrence Wall defeat Russ Feingold next year:

How are Republicans going to beat a tax cutting, deficit reducing, bipartisan working, health care supporting Wisconsin legend?

They better convince us he’s a Bears fan.

Hard to imagine, but desperate candidates and parties will try anything. Wall will throw anything he can find (or make up) at Russ next year, so now we'll be ready for the worst.

-Barry Orton

WMC, Cohorts Return for Another Round of Deception

With the statewide elections less than twelve months away, Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce (WMC) returns touting misleading and deceptive studies. Citing a 'new study" WMC Urges Rejection of Global Warming Task Force Proposals

In the wake of a new study citing massive job and personal income loss, Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce Thursday urged the Legislature to reject Wisconsin-only global warming proposals endorsed by a governor’s task force.

The "new study" is a piece of work commissioned by the Wisconsin Public Research Institute (WPRI), an organization that should know better. They commissioned the Beacon HIll Institute (BHI) to produce the Economics of Climate Change Proposal in Wisconsin which concludes:

Wisconsin will experience a negative shock to its economic well being, that given the economic damage of the proposals, may well inhibit its ability to fully recover the lost ground in the medium term.

All of which is predicated upon research and conclusions that are inadequate and misleading. To assess economic and fiscal impacts, BHI uses its copyrighted "STAMP® (State Tax Analysis Modeling Program) for Wisconsin" which is akin to being put on double-secret probation. No one knows what it is but it sounds ominous. As best as we can ascertain, it is a model not unlike the Tax Foundation's, which analyzes taxes and fees without any regard for their relationship or the truth.

A good example of the flawed methodology in the report is the section on renewable energy, Production, Capture and use of Animal Methane.

This policy recommendation focuses on increasing the capture of methane produced by farm animals in the form of decomposing waste.  The amount of captured methane would be enhanced through the use of digesters, which would speed decomposition and methane production.  The methane would be burned to produce electricity.

Targeting methane capture is a solid strategy to reduce GHG emissions, since it is considered “over 20 times more effective in trapping heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide.”30  However, the program’s cost appears to be high, since methane is typically produced through the decomposing of waste (either manure or landfill), and increasing methane production would be difficult.  The proposed digesters merely help to hasten the natural process, not create more.

Duh. Biodigesters are not about creating more methane. A biodigester is a system that more than hastens the natural process. The biodigester captures the methane rather than having it enter the atmosphere. In addition the biodigester has different strains of bacteria including those that can remove most of the sulfur which is detrimental to the use of the methane as fuel. The biodigester cleans the methane so it can be used as a fuel.

Efficiently capturing and cleaning the methane allows a farm to produce enough electricity at the rate of 25 households for every 100 cows. The economics could be better, but under present circumstances it works. The report also fails to include the economic value of the manure and the dry matter as both fertilizers and bedding. Figure a farmer can save $7,000 on bedding costs for every one hundred head. The manure applied to the fields has 90-95% of the pathogens destroyed, thus reducing the need for herbicides and pesticides.

Today's formula:   WMC + WPRI + BHI (STAMP®) = DECEPTION & MISREPRESENTATION

From Barstool, Fox Valley Republican Launches Campaign To Unseat Rep. Kagen

Tuesday, former Wisconsin Assembly Rep. Terri McCormick announced her candidacy for the Republican congressional nomination to challenge Congressman Steve Kagen. In 2006, she got clobbered (71% - 29%) in the Republican primary by John Gard, who then lost a close one to Kagen in the general. This time, she'll be in a crowded primary, with at least three other candidates so far.

To differentiate herself from the group, and to resonate with her potential constituency, McCormick is posting videos of what she terms "Pub Talks." Seated at a bar with a drink in her hand, McCormick pontificates to a friendly, bow-tied bartender, "Jimmy," who recites his lines as stiffly as a community theater wannabe - think Eugene Levy as dentist Alan Pearl in "Waiting for Guffman." McCormick does her best to channel Sarah Palin: "We're a nation in crisis, and I've got strong feelings about what to do about that crisis."  McCormick is also pushing a self-published book titled "What Sex is a Republican?"  The video is at that "Guffman" point of painful and funny because it takes itself so seriously and is so unconvincing.

Watch it:

This is only part 1; the conclusion will tell us how the slick guy with the tie is "connected." We can't wait.

(When Terri McCormick was in the Assembly, Republican staffers cringed whenever she spoke. Now we know why.)

UPDATE: The Recess Supervisor, a former AssGOP staffer, dug a bit deeper and found the Terri McCormick Players in a musical of the Ed Gein story.

- Barry Orton

Democrats in the Pumpkin Patch

Recently some hay was made of the agricultural status of land owned by Terrence Wall, prospective conservative challenger to Russ Feingold. Wall is benefitting from a tax break brought to Wisconsin, in part by Democrats.

Have You Visited Terrence Wall's $2 Million 'Pumpkin Patch'?In July of 2009, using the use-value property tax classification designed to assist farmers, the properties were reclassified as agricultural (G4) and the valuation for each was reduced to $300. Using the tax formula, Wall will likely now pay an estimated $10 in property taxes for the properties – a savings of $34,000.

It's the Great Pumpkin, Terrence Wall It's also the kind of crap that drives voters crazy. The electorate draws no moral distinction between tax avoidance (legal) and tax evasion (illegal). Wall may have to learn that the hard way.

The Problem with Terrence Wall: He's recently come under fire for using sneaky, but legal, means to avoid paying some Wisconsin taxes.

Lets get one thing straight about Farmland Use-Value Assessment.

Democrats are as responsible for this travesty as much as  Republicans.

The first step to creating this exemption to the uniformity clause of the Wisconsin Constitution was taken in taken in 1974. The Legislature adopted 1973 AJR 1 to place the proposed change on the ballot.  it was a bipartisan action in the Assembly 66 ayes (33 D and 33R) to 32 noes (29 D and 3 R).

 

Urban leaders repeatedly pointed out that:

• Real agricultural land, away from the urban areas, would get no benefit from the new law.
• The benefits would go to speculators and developers who would get a tax break.
• There would be leap frogging of development over the exempted land.
• That despite the non-partisan Legislative Fiscal Bureau stating, “The purpose of the [use-value] law is to slow urban sprawl and allow farmers to keep their land in agricultural production without burdensome taxation," that would not be the result and developers would get the tax breaks.

All proved to be correct.

In 1970's Milwaukee Mayor Henry Maier and I fought this, and again in the 1990's Milwaukee Mayor John Norquist and I fought the 1990's budget amendment that accelerated the tax breaks. 

While advocates of the measure claimed that the legislation was intended to preserve farm land by removing taxation pressures to develop it, all it did was provide a tax shelter for developers and shift $767 million in property taxes to urban and suburban communities by 2002. 

It was mostly homeowners in urban areas that picked up the $767 million tax shift.

Democrats played a role in this every step of the way.

I have friends who are developers. They know how I feel about this.

A candid examination of right-wing policies and the Democrats who play along ...

 

 

Barrett To Run, Taking Soglin Off Hook

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Dan Bice is reporting that Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett will run for Governor next year, taking Paul off the hook well before his Thanksgiving deadline.  Whew.

Not that there wasn't a tidal wave of interest and debate here this last week over the possibility.  After comrade John Nichols gave the "Soglin for Governor" campaign some Old Media traction, breathlessly calling the prospect "not unappealing,"  Dave Blaska felt it necessary to parry "Havana Paul" with some snark of his own:

Havana Paul is actually calling for higher taxes (that is what "investment” means in LiberalSpeak) — and that it be spent on schools and "infrastructure.” Not roads, presumably. Probably commuter rail. "Based on sound economic AND social principles?” How is that not "political ideology?”

So with John Nichols with us and Dave Blaska against us, the "Soglin for Governor" campaign was on the right track and gaining steam. But now, with Barrett in the race and the bandwagon pulling away from the dock, all the air is out of the Soglin balloon and the bubbly is getting warm and flat.  However, the political future of Wisconsin looks a lot brighter than it did yesterday.

Here's Waxing America's early endorsement: Soglin Barrett for Governor in 2010.

- Barry Orton

Soglin For Governor Gains Traction

John Nichols takes the possibility seriously in the Cap Times today.

Soglin is, after all, an able administrator with a flair for combining academic theories about public policy with hands-on management. As mayor, he hired exceptional administrators and earned a respect from city employees that meant they gave 110 percent. That equation kept the confidence of taxpayers, who paid in substantial revenues but got back substantial services.

Mayor Soglin balanced budgets, initiated bold changes and built unexpected alliances. He got the city's bond rating upgraded to AAA status and could credibly claim to have taken at least some of the steps that led to Madison's designation as the most livable city in the country.

Soglin's skills are precisely what are required of a governor. His track record is superior to that of any of the current contenders for the state's top job.

So why shouldn't Soglin be taken seriously as a candidate for governor? Indeed, why shouldn't he run?

The answer has less to do with the former mayor than with the sorry state of the Democratic Party in Wisconsin, which is the circumstance Soglin is trying to address with his speculation about a "that'll teach 'em" bid.

Blogger "The Sconz" looks at the pros and cons and falls on the "con" side:

Here would be my con argument:

It’s not that Soglin couldn’t go tit-for-tat with Scott Walker in a debate (I assume, but I’ve never heard him speak) – it’s that his candidacy would signal a deep paralysis in the state Democratic party. It would be a constant reminder to Democrats that no official of higher stature had the guts to run because everybody assumed the Doyle legacy would be too hard to run from. He hasn’t been in government for years, and despite his more moderate tone he’s taken in middle age, voters would be suspicious of a man whose primary political experience comes from being the twenty-something mayor of a left-wing college town.

My pro argument:

Soglin could counter the local government credentials that Walker would bring. He’s older, wiser, and he is not a career politician. He’s spent some time out of government and reflected on the state of affairs in Wisconsin. He is deeply troubled by recent trends, including the ineffective Doyle Democrats and the radical Republicans. Whatever happened to investing in what counts: education, health care, the environment. He could inspire primary voters, starting with a sizeable base in Madison, and perhaps by the time he wins the primary, he would be as legitimate a candidate as Walker, but without as many visible stains from recent political battles.

One quibble, Sconz: Paul has not only been "the twenty-something mayor of a left-wing college town, " but also the thirty-something, forty-something and fifty-something mayor of that left-wing college town, who lost his last try because he was too far to the center for that town.

Nichols sums up the situation best:

Democrats would do well to match the level of energy and engagement that the Republicans are displaying. That's the point Soglin is trying to make. It's a good one. And it marks Soglin as something all too rare these days: a prominent Wisconsin Democrat who understands the need for his party to present itself as something more than an insiders' club preparing to name the next manager of the status quo.

Soglin wasn't taking himself too seriously when he mused about throwing his hat into the ring.

But, frankly, Soglin's party and his state would be well served if he -- and a crowd of other prominent Democrats -- did run.

More to come until Barrett makes his announcement.

UPDATE: The "progressive students" don't like Paul, especially since he endorsed Brenda Konkel's successful opponent, Bridget Maniaci.

- Barry Orton

Thoughts on the Governor's Race: Take Two

It was meant as a pointed jab. With humor. When I posted A Most Serious Threat To The Wisconsin Democratic Party on Friday, I was trying to elevate the discussion about the need for a viable candidate for governor.

I did not expect the post to be most widely read Waxing America since the infamous bicycle post, Bicycling Madison Style: As Dumb As It Gets, which is exactly why, my friends, I would never be a viable candidate for Governor.

Not to mention that few are worse than moi at fund-raising, or staying on message. Or that Sara would never speak to me again.

On a more serious note, I am thankful for all of the well-meant words of encouragement and kind thoughts, some from very old friends, some from people I do not know.

Let me make something constructive of this post: when I defeated Joe Sensenbrenner in 1989, he was silly enough to think that his record on management would get him re-elected.

When I ran in 2003, I was silly enough to think that my record on management would get me elected.

There were other reasons I lost, but the point is that progressives must tend to the management and administration of government.

We must make a genuine commitment and not leave the field to the Scott Walkers. They hate government and public employees.  They want to privatize or close everything except the police and fire departments, and I am not so sure about the fire departments.

With improved management, we will have a better democracy, we will save money, the quality of services will improve, and the respect for our public institutions will grow.

Let's elect someone who embraces government, knows its limitations, and is committed to making it better.