Paul Soglin: Waxing America

Bicycle Ride August 23. Vice President.

This morning's ride was on and off, but finally I embarked on a jaunt around Madison. The clouds were ominous so I ruled out the planned trip to Mt. Horeb. Sara does not retrieve me with her sag wagon operation more than five miles from home base. Especially when she is spending the morning replastering the kitchen and bathrooms ceilings, damaged by last winter's roof leaks and the subsequent spring rains. Yes, she did it all herself.

I headed west and then circled back to the Arboretum, crossed Fish Hatchery and Park Street with the plan to do Lake Monona counter-clock wise. I stopped to help a couple headed to the Alliant Center for the pottery show; the were trying to figure out the best route to cross John Nolen Drive.

The Lake Monona Loop was uneventful, except that there was lots of activity as neighbors prepared for the annual Orton Park festival. Many of them, capitalizing on the crowds, were running their own garage sales.

As I passed one house I noticed all of the adult materials spread out in the driveway, drab, mostly browns, blacks and some tans and greens.

The front yard was a sea of pink. The right wing family values crowd should take note that even in Madison's extreme far left radical Sixth District, little girls grow up in a sea of pink and occasional purple.

As usual the closer to the center of the city, the greater the number of helmet-less riders.

As you probably know by now, Obama did not tap me for vice president. I suppose two Hyde Parkers was one too many.

Quality of Waxing America Readership Declines; Reds Everywhere

Sunday I posted on bicycling, Weekend Bicycling Report July 27, 2008 and Skippy, with obviously too much time on his hands, left a comment:

Where is your smartass poll about the Brewers melting down, now that they are a game out of first? You loved rubbing it in when they were having a rough patch, but dont mention them when they start to rock and roll...

Not one to admit mistakes, are you, you smug commie piece of...

Recall that on June 13th I posted a poll asking readers:

It is time for the Brewers to:

• Panic 8.5%
• Get a new manager 19.4%
• Stay calm; it is a young team, they will settle down. 37.6%
• Trade Weeks and maybe Hall and Hardy for some pitching 9.1%
• Build a new team around Fielder and Braun 6.1%
• Become a Cub fan 24.8%

The Brewers did make a trade for some pitching though they managed to hang on to Weeks, Hall and Hardy.

Now what I want to know is what does the poll, (yes the Cub offering was smartass), have to do with being a commie? It appears that the political dialog has sunk so low that it even would shame Joe McCarthy. After all, if in the 1950's one were to root for Cincinnati rather than Cleveland or the Yankees, they would not be called a red.

Weekend Bicycling Report July 27, 2008

For the first time all summer I was able to do successive weekend back to back rides. I rode Saturday and Sunday last and this weekend.

It's about the back. With three discs fused, it looks like another one is going.

A combination of physical therapy and an epidural a week ago Friday had me back in the saddle though hills are still tough. The ache in the back combined with weakened legs from inactivity made for some very tough rides.

I resumed body pump and added more stretching. If things hold together, pilates is next.

I did a circuitous ride south and east of Madison yesterday with a finale of coming around Lake Monona and home through the Isthmus. Today's ride was a classic shot out to Paoli.

The weather was great both days, especially with the cloud cover today.

Maybe it was random chance but it appears that safety was on most rider's minds. Only a family of three and two other bikers rode sans helmet.

What I did find curious was people biking and smoking at the same time. I doubt that the benefit of one displaces the damage of the other.

I am now convinced that the Fitchburg re-pavement policy needs re-examination.

In an effort to save money and to recycle, Fitchburg is resurfacing its roads with a substance that is made from recycled materials but also has a high coefficient of friction. It obviously slows down all vehicles including bicycles. For bicyclists it means more work to maintain a decent speed. For automobiles, it means burning more fuel.

Brett Favre: The Athlete As Hamlet

It does not take a brilliant sports fan or a student of literature to know that athletes, no matter how great their prowess on the playing field, make lousy role models when it comes time to resolving personal problems or establishing themselves as great characters. Just ask Jose Canseco or the latest jailed running back.

Brett Favre, in an instant, transformed  himself from superstar to mortal, and it did not involve an arrest or a public domestic dispute. With a great  career behind him, including one of the finest seasons in any quarterback's career, in what was thought to be his last season, he managed to demonstrate an excessive amount of mortality.

There are exceptions. Lou Gehrig comes to mind in the classic, resonating moment, where he confronted death before 45,000 fans in a live setting of Yankee Stadium that evolved into a poignant moment for millions of viewers over ehe years.

The drama is not  the color of the uniform that Favre will don in the next month, (or not), but his tormented existence which plays out each day after day after day.

The man is mortal and like the most common, ordinary retiree, the future terrifies him.

"To be, or not to be: that is the question." Hamlet Act III,Scene I

MLB All Star Game. The Dumbest Game.

The All Star game was the brainchild of Chicago Tribune sportswriter Arch Ward, who saw his dream come to fruition when, on July 6, 1933, those who went to Comiskey Park saw  the most glittering assemblage of ball playing talent ever brought together on the diamond at one time.”

The game is a waste of time. I was fortunate to see the game that never ended in Miller Park in 2002. Another brilliant Selig contribution to the sport.

• Pitchers are limited to two innings or 50 pitches since everyone knows their arms are more valuable in regular season play.
• The selection of the players is a joke. Ever since Cincinnati stuffed the ballot box in 1957 sending the likes of third baseman Don Hoak and outfielders Gus Bell and Wally Post, mistakes continue to be made - by fans and managers alike.
• For the last twenty years, the lineups were riddled with players using juice who cannot field, which is 128% of the game.
• No one makes a sincere effort to win.
• The one time a player did go all out, it was that idiot Pete Rose forgetting that he did not have a bet on the game.  He ended the career of Indians catcher Ray Fosse with a slide that belonged in Arena Football.
• In 1945, World War II and the absence of quality players cancelled the game.
• Get the hint?
• Oh, save the Home Run Derby.

Instant Replay: The End of Major League Baseball as We Know It

It looks like instant replay in major league baseball games is a forgone conclusion and it will be here by August.

The beauty of the game is the human element. The game has rules here were meant to be followed,  (unless you can break them),  but it also allows for judgment, cunning, and conniving.

The spitball is illegal but great pitchers work feverishly to find ways to doctor the ball. At least I hope they do.

It is illegal to steal signs but the runner on second is doing his best to relay the catcher's signal to the batter.

Any outfielder worth his salt always makes the catch of the sinking line drive by rolling over and raising his glove triumphantly. It does not matter if he trapped the ball. It does not matter that the replay shows he trapped the ball. What is important is the success of the deception at that moment so that the umpire calls the batter out.

The deception does not stop on defense. Credit the batter who trots confidently to first base in an effort to convince the umpire that the last pitch was either ball four or perhaps had hit him.

It is the pitcher walking off the mound in an effort to convince the same umpire that the last pitch was strike three.

Umpires falling victim to these tricks are as much a part of the game as are their most infamous calls. The game is meaningless without the failure on the umpire to call fan interference when Steve Bartman reached for the foul ball.

That may have been the correct call but we all appreciate the umpire's horrible call that gave Derek Jeter a home run in game 1 of the 1996 American League playoffs.

 

Umpires' mistakes like home runs that appear to wrap around the foul pole or calling out runners who clearly beat the throw home are part of the game.

I can see it now. It is the top of the 5th inning and the clean up batter has a 3-2 count with two outs and the bases loaded. The batter takes the pitch and the umpire calls it a strike as the ball drifts outside. The batter drags his bat muttering under his breath something about the umpire's relatives and suddenly the arm goes up to the sky and Dave Ortiz  is summarily tossed from the game.

Instant replay shows the pitch was a ball, the batter is given first base and reinstated into the game.

Instant replay will end the game as we know it. First they will only use it for select plays such as the home run or the play at the plate. Eventually it will be used for calling balls and strikes. Finally the game will be perfected when the umpires are replaced by lasers, a gps, and microchips.

There are two problems with the game today. It takes too long and the expensive hot dogs stink. The instant replay will lengthen the time of the game, increase the price of the hot dog, and do nothing to improve its taste.

Phooey.

Milwaukee Brewers Meltdown

The Milwaukee Brewers are in trouble.  The meltdown that occurred in Thursday's 7-2 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the sixth inning speaks volumes.

The lead off home run Ben Sheets gave up to Andruw Jones was not a major concern. Sheets was pitching well and pitched well to both Andre Ethier and veteran Jeff Kent, despite the latter's home run.

Then came the meltdown.

Left handed first baseman James Loney sliced an outside pitch to left field. Young Ryan Braun made a diving attempt to catch the ball. It got by him. With experience Braun will not make that mistake. No matter how he played the ball, with no runners on base, the first rule is to not let the ball get by him. Instead of one out and a runner on first , the runner was on third.

Then Ben Sheets came unglued. The three run homer run to Dodger backup catcher Gary Bennett, who was hitting .118 at the time, with no  RBI's this season, was his undoing.

These kind of collapses are mental and emotional and that is the responsibility of the manager. 

When Braun saw his pitcher down two-zip, despite pitching a fine game, he overplayed a ball. Understandable.

The Ben Sheets collapse is inexcusable.

When I have the stomach for it we can discuss the double switch in the sixth inning which resulted in taking out Hart.

And don't even get me started on Eric Gagne.

Big Brown - A True Champion

Since the great match up between Affirmed and Alydar in 1978 I have steadfastly thrown out the possibility of any Kentucky Derby winner going on to win the Triple Crown. It is just too grueling a challenge to run three races at a 1 1/4, 1 3/16, and 1 1/2 miles in five weeks.

Horses, especially those going two turns, and two turns against such stiff competition need at least three weeks or more to recover from a race as demanding as the Kentucky Derby.

I was wrong about Big Brown needing more conditioning and experience as a prerequisite to his winning the Kentucky Derby. Those two races were monstrous, and I like other handicappers, refused to believe that they were a substitute for additional experience on the race track.

That said, I am a believer. Marring any injury, Big Brown should be the first Triple Crown Winner in thirty years.

Clearly this horse has the physical maturity and the stamina to defeat this crop of three year olds. There may be another talented three year old out there who can fill out by June but it is unlikely. Remember, three year olds are like teenagers - every few months is like another year. But while a lot of colts, including several who skipped the Kentucky Derby,  will grow from February to June, it unlikely that they can reach the level of Big Brown. With the Kentucky Derby, he has now run three consecutive races with outstanding speed figures, and those races had demanding paces to match.

Kentucky Derby Take Two - Cowboy Cal

Update Monday May 5, 2008: For my post race comments Big Brown - A True Champion

The goddess of wagering is not going to take kindly to this. I changed my mind about the Kentucky Derby.

Friday night I reexamined the prep races, particularly the Blue Grass. My conclusion is that that race, synthetic track and all, is the secret to picking the winner. Cowboy Cal who led most of the way, is my new selection. The conventional wisdom that the published time for the half mile of :49 seconds was slow, very slow.

Cowboy Cal, leading most of the way , worked harder than the winner, Monba.  Pletcher trains both horses and he would not enter Cowboy Cal if he did not beleive the horse could win. But then again Pletcher knows very little about winning the Kentucky Derby.

If I am wrong, I am wrong, but given the racing surface and given the track variant that day, the half mile, adjusted is more like a :47.

In any case, the worst that happens is I now have the opportunity to look foolish on two successive days. Until the start of the race I will be muttering "Cowboy Cal and Smooth Air."

Colonel John, Z Fortune, Bob Black Jack and Gayego will round out my gimmicks. I will drop Recaputuretheglory and add Tale of Ekati.

When the race is over, I will do what most handicappers do. Figure out how close I came to picking the winner, and move on to the next race.

Kentucky Derby Winner 2008

Update Monday May 5, 2008: For my post race comments: Big Brown - A True Champion

Update Saturday morning May 3, 2008 8:54 am: I changed my mind about the winner.  For those who care: Kentucky Derby Take Two - Cowboy Cal

For the past two weeks friends have asked who I like in Saturday's Kentucky Derby.

Face it, for a hardened horse player, the Kentucky Derby is not the way to make money - you have to start out figuring out who will win the race. Except for an occasional, very occasional,  good year, all it is good for is bragging rights.

Here is the problem:

• Every horse in the race is asked to do something they never did before.
• Few of them have raced against one another more than once.
• They come from all over the country and despite Beyer 'figs,' comparing the varying racing surfaces distances, and weather conditions is a daunting task.
• This year the matter is complicated by three additional factors:
  • Many of the horses raced on artificial surfaces and handicappers are still having difficulty adjusting to the changes in time and pace.  The horses and jockeys are having an even greater problem.
  • The Wood Memorial had an extremely fast pace.
  • The Blue Grass had an extremely slow pace. Those last two races make it difficult to assess the fitness of about six of the entries.
• Rarely does the best horse win the race.

Anyway, I have not had a solid Derby since 2001 when I spent that Saturday morning walking around muttering "Monarchos and Invisible Ink, Invisible Ink and Monarchos." They went on to run 1-2, Monarchos winning,  with Congaree third. The $2 exacta paid over $2,458 and the $1 trifecta paid $6117.

Again, I have not has a winner since.

Undaunted, I offer up Smooth Air despite the fact that he was not 100% at the beginning of the  week.  As Andy Beyer noted, as strong as he looks, Big Brown just does not have the seasoning to go the distance with the furious pace.

I plan to mess around with Colonel John, Z Fortune, Bob Black Jack, Gayego, and Recapturetheglory in the gimmicks.