Paul Soglin: Waxing America

COVID-19 James Corden, "We'll Get Through This." Not. Post #12

Last night, referring to COVID-19 James Corden, and I love him, repeatedly said, "We'll get through this."

No we will not, unless more drastic steps are taken..

It is estimated that 32% of Americans will be unemployed. It is likely that not thousands, but millions of businesses will never reopen, even with the stimulus package. We are barely into the crisis and already small business owner after owner announced that are closing forever. 

THE PROBLEM

The problem is not complicated to understand. The bills do not stop for the business owner; there is the rent or mortgage, the property taxes, the utility bills, the loan payments from 2008, and the debts owed the suppliers. Loans, even without interest look like Mount Everest, since these owners will stay closed for  another two months and after that, the income will be marginal since so many customers will still be out of work.

In this supply chain everyone owed money will be in the same situation.

Then there are the workers.Unemployment covers a fraction of their obligations. And they owe money for housing, food,cars, health costs, clothes, student loan debt and more.

Right now ther can be no evictions or utility cut offs for non-payment but eventually those bills come due.

THERE IS A SOLUTION

There needs to be payments, grants, not loans, immediately, so that the business owners do not throw in the towel. Loans can work after this is over to rebuild the economy.

The unemployment compensation must be comparable to the lost wages and it is for everyone, not just those with social security numbers.

HOW DO WE PAY FOR THIS

That is the easiest part, if this nation has the will to do the right thing. We go back to a progressive tax structure of forty and fifty years ago. Those tax rates never crushed U.S. investments, they only limited the excessive profits. Yes, I am talking about taxing the rich, the one per cent.

HOW THIS HAPPENS

The 2020 elections will have the same consequences as the 1932 election. In 1932 the nation faced a choice of selecting a government that was to democratize the economy or one destined to grow economic inequality and seed a  plutocracy.  The difference is that in 1932  voter suppression was not coast to coast. Good luck.

SUMMARY

We  need a new government.

IHME Hospital Projections

Your Nine Year Old is Smarter Than Donald Trump: Covid -19

 

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation published charts that a fourth-grader can understand (and probably you too). Hold your mouse over the charts and see the daily numbers forecasted for ICU beds, shortages, deaths, etc.

 

The data is premised on present rates, of infection, isolation, etc. The takeaways: The growth of infection and fatalities will sharply rise over the next TWO WEEKS.

 

The peak will be April 15.

But, the rate will not decline to the late March levels until June 1, 2020.

 

The rate may be different in different cities/.states based on their compliance with staying home.

 

Trump is correct is saying deaths will probably peak around April 15. He is wrong leaving the impression that things will quickly improve after that.

 

 

 

COVID-19 Projections

COVID - 19 This Pandemic Outcome: You Got What You Need Post #11

The inability of the federal government and the state governments to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic was planned. I reviewed two hundred pages of reports from the CDC and NIH including the one's linked in previous posts such as the Pandemic Influenza Plan 2017 Update.

First, the studies accurately predict and model what is happening. The U.S. government did not obfuscate the probability of a pandemic or the subsequent consequences.

Secondly, the strategy to address a pandemic was clearly inadequate. There are no recommendations that the federal government prepare the nation for a pandemic on the scale modeled. The reports contain a series of recommendations placing the responsibility on the individual states. That reports acknowledges that the states do not have the ventilators, respirators or other necessary PPEs.

A conscious decision was made to recommend an inadequate response.

If you examine the reports there is only one conclusion. The present crisis is a victory for those who want a smaller federal government, advocate for "state's rights," and who believe economically it is best not to prepare.

No one is to blame, the right-wing won this health and economic battle. The Trump, 'get back to work' and Texas 'old people can die' viewpoint is simply a continuation of the mentality that crafted the reports.

You can't always get what you want

You can't always get what you want

You can't always get what you want

But if you try sometimes, well, you might find, You get what you need.

 

You  can't get your prescription filled at the Chelsea drugstore.

Yeah, and he said said one word to me, and that was "dead"

 

COVID-19 What the Government Knew Post #10

Planning Assumptions*

Given the difficulty associated with estimating timing or impact, pandemic planning is based on the following assumptions about viral epidemiology and human susceptibility:

 

• Delays in availability of vaccines and shortages of antiviral drugs are likely, particularly early in the pandemic.

 

• The seasonality of a pandemic cannot be predicted with certainty. With seasonal influenza, peak disease usually occurs during December through March in the United States. During the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic, the first cases were identified in April, and widespread US community outbreaks first began in August, with illness peaking in October 2009, months earlier than is routinely seen with seasonal influenza.

 

• The novel virus will have the ability to spread rapidly worldwide.

 

• If the pandemic is characterized by severe disease, it will have the potential to disrupt national and community infrastructures (including healthcare, transportation, commerce,utilities, and public safety) due to widespread illness, absenteeism, and death among workers and their families, as well as concern about ongoing exposure to the virus.

 

• Not all jurisdictions will experience clusters of disease simultaneously; however, near-simultaneous clusters likely will occur in many communities across the United States, thereby limiting the ability of any jurisdiction to support and assist other jurisdictions.

 

• During a pandemic, infection in a localized area can last about six to eight weeks. At least two pandemic disease waves will occur. Following the pandemic, the newly circulating virus is likely to become a regularly occurring seasonal influenza.

 

• Immunity to the novel pandemic influenza subtype will vary based on the strain of the virus, but most people will likely be susceptible, depending on whether a similar strain has circulated in previous seasons.

 

• The clinical disease attack rate could range from 20% to 30% of the overall population. Illness rates will likely vary by age group (and other epidemiologic characteristics) and could create selective pressures on segments of the community, such as nursing homes or schools.

 

• The typical incubation period (the time between acquiring the infection and becoming ill) for influenza averages two days (range is one to four days).

•Of those who become ill with influenza, up to 50% will seek outpatient medical care.

 

•The number of hospitalizations and deaths will depend on the severity of the disease and the success of steps to mitigate its transmission. Nonetheless, estimates could differ by as much as a factor of 10 between more and less severe scenarios .

 

•Risk groups for severe and fatal infections cannot be predicted with certainty. During annual fall and winter influenza seasons, infants and the elderly, people with certain chronic illnesses, people with morbid obesity, and pregnant women are usually at higher risk of complications from influenza infections than other groups. In contrast, in the 1918 pandemic, deaths were notably evident among young, previously healthy adults; in 2009, el erly people were disproportionately spared severe illness and death.

 

•People who become infected will shed the virus and transmit infection  for up to one day before the onset of illness.

 

• Viral shedding and the risk for transmission will be greatest during the first two days of illness and may persist or five to seven days.

 

• Children will shed the greatest amount of virus and, therefore, are likely to pose the greatest risk for transmission.

 

•The most severely ill people with influenza will shed the most virus for the longest period of time.

 

•One or two secondary infections will occur as a result of transmission from someone who is ill. In contrast, some estimates from past pandemics have been higher, with up to three secondary infections per primary case.

 

*From pp43-44 Pandemic Influenza Plan 2017 Update

 

 

 

circulating virus is likely to become a regularly occurri ng seasonal influenza. • Immunity to the novel pandemic influenza subtype w ill vary based on the strain of thevirus, but mos t people will likely be susceptibl e, depending on w hether a similar strain has c irculated in previous seasons.• The clini c al dis eas e attac k rate could range from 20% to 30% of the overall population. Illness r ates will likely vary by age group (and other epidemiologic characteristics) a nd could create se lective pressures on se gments of the community, such as nursing homes or schools. • The typical incubation period (the time between acquiri ng the infection and becoming ill) for influenza averages two days (range is one to f our days). •Of thos e w ho b ecome ill with influenza, up to 50% will seek outpatient medical c are. •The number o f hospitaliz ations and deaths will depend on the se verity of t he diseaseand the succe ss of steps to mitigate i ts transmission. N onetheless, es timates could differ by as much as a f actor of 10 between more and l ess severe sc enarios .•Risk gr oups for severe and fatal in f ections ca nnot be predicted with ce rtainty. Duringannual fall and winter influenza s easons, in fants and the elderly, people with certain chronic illnesses, people with morbid obesity , and pregnant women are usually at higherrisk of complications from influenza infections than other groups. In contras t, in the 1918 pandemic, deaths were notably evident among y oung, previously healthy adults; in 2009, el derly people were disproportionately spared severe illness and death. •People who become inf ected will shed v irus and transmit in f ection f or up to one day before the ons et of illness.• Viral shedding and the risk for transmission will be greatest during the first two days of illness and may persi st f or five to se ven days. • Childr en will shed the greatest amount of virus and, therefore, are likely to pos e the gr eatest risk f or transmi ssion.•The most severely ill people with influenza will shed the most virus f or the l onges t period of time. •One or two secondary inf ectio ns will occur as a r esult of transmi ssion from someone who i s ill. In c ontrast, some estimat es from past pandemi cs have been hig her, wi th up to three sec ondary inf ectio ns per p rimary c as e.Bec ause the precise impact of a future pandemi

circulating virus is likely to become a regularly occurri ng seasonal influenza. • Immunity to the novel pandemic influenza subtype w ill vary based on the strain of thevirus, but mos t people will likely be susceptibl e, depending on w hether a similar strain has c irculated in previous seasons.• The clini c al dis eas e attac k rate could range from 20% to 30% of the overall population. Illness r ates will likely vary by age group (and other epidemiologic characteristics) a nd could create se lective pressures on se gments of the community, such as nursing homes or schools. • The typical incubation period (the time between acquiri ng the infection and becoming ill) for influenza averages two days (range is one to f our days). •Of thos e w ho b ecome ill with influenza, up to 50% will seek outpatient medical c are. •The number o f hospitaliz ations and deaths will depend on the se verity of t he diseaseand the succe ss of steps to mitigate i ts transmission. N onetheless, es timates could differ by as much as a f actor of 10 between more and l ess severe sc enarios .•Risk gr oups for severe and fatal in f ections ca nnot be predicted with ce rtainty. Duringannual fall and winter influenza s easons, in fants and the elderly, people with certain chronic illnesses, people with morbid obesity , and pregnant women are usually at higherrisk of complications from influenza infections than other groups. In contras t, in the 1918 pandemic, deaths were notably evident among y oung, previously healthy adults; in 2009, el derly people were disproportionately spared severe illness and death. •People who become inf ected will shed v irus and transmit in f ection f or up to one day before the ons et of illness.• Viral shedding and the risk for transmission will be greatest during the first two days of illness and may persi st f or five to se ven days. • Childr en will shed the greatest amount of virus and, therefore, are likely to pos e the gr eatest risk f or transmi ssion.•The most severely ill people with influenza will shed the most virus f or the l onges t period of time. •One or two secondary inf ectio ns will occur as a r esult of transmi ssion from someone who i s ill. In c ontrast, some estimat es from past pandemi cs have been hig her, wi th up to three sec ondary inf ectio ns per p rimary c as e.Bec ause the precise impact of a future pandemi

COVID-19 80,000 Deaths by July Post #9

And Donald Trump wants to 'reopen America.' No, he will be reopening the cemeteries.

80,000 Deaths by July

COVID-19 The Not So Secret Government Report 2017 Post #7

"The original 2005 Plan was audacious in its goals—for domestic pandemic vaccine production capacity, for stockpiling of antiviral drugs and pre-pandemic vaccines, and for using community mitigation measures to slow spread of disease...The 2005 Pandemic Influenza Plan and subsequent updates focused planning for a severe pandemic with effects that would extend beyond health consequences to include social and economic disruption...

...Community mitigation aims to slow the spread of a novel influenza virus in communities through the use of NPIs and threat-appropriate travel and border health measures. Community mitigation measures are the first line of defense against pandemic influenza, and may help reduce the spread of other respiratory infectious diseases. They can be used from the earliest stages of an influenza pandemic, including the initial months when the most effective countermeasure—a vaccine against the new pandemic virus—might not yet be broadly available...

 

 

 

The short version 17 pages, 2005.

National Strategy for PANDEMIC INFLUENZA

For those who want to be current 52 pages 2017

Pandemic Influenza Plan 2017 Update

 

 

 

 

 

 

COVID-19 Smoking Your Grandparents Loco Weed in Texas Post #6

Texas Republican Lieutenant Governor on COVID-19: Let old people die.

 

Older people would rather die than let Covid-19 harm US economy – Texas official

Here is what Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick says about himself from his webpage:

 

...and across the nation, Lt. Gov. Patrick is leading the fight for life and liberty in Texas including securing the border, reducing property and business taxes, standing up for the Second Amendment and addressing Texas’ infrastructure challenges to assure that our state continues to flourish economically...Pro Life Champion Award..."

 

 

 

 

COVID-19 Time to Fire Anthony Fauci MD? Post #5

Here is the answer to the Corona virus question that all America wants to know.

 

Anthony Fauci interview in Science Magazine

COVID-19 "To Tell the Truth" Post #4

Best weapon to defeat the corona virus: tell the truth

In any organization,a manufacturing company, a school system, a government, leadership is required if the system is to work effectively. Great leadership, and management, is built on trust.  Trust requires the truth. Stay with the ad, the story is worthwhile.

 

 

 

COVID-19 Can You Say "Hurricane Katrina?" Post #3

Hurricane Katrina and now COVID-19 demonstrates the  difference between leading and managing. Leading suggest providing guidance. That could be an elected official, the head of a business, or to really get the sense, a member of the clergy.

Managing is much different. It evokes someone in charge who is accomplishing something. Right now this nation needs a manager and a leader, we have neither.

For over two hundred years as New Orleans sank and the levees destabilized there were contradictory recommendations, lack of preparedness, planning, and  execution.The only thing that everyone knew was that New Orleans could not stand a direct hit from a Big One.

For decades health experts and some politicians recognized that a pandemic was a real possibility.   System established to prepare for a pandemic were underfunded, dismantled, and ignored.

When Hurricane Katrina hit, no was in charge. Michael ("Brownie you're doing heckuva job.") Brown  headed FEMA. Governor Kathleen Blanco controlled the state agencies and the National Guard. Mayor C. Ray Nagin headed the city. They failed to coordinate, they waited for one another, they couldn't find the resources,and they contradicted one another.

With COVID-19 we start with multiple press conferences where three or more people contradict one another. Clearly there is misdirection from the federal government, especially when it come to medical resources, that either arrive too late or not at all.

The best functions of government are systems deigned to repeatedly provide a repetitive consistent service. Garbage collection. Snow plowing. Fire protection. Building and heath inspections. The better ones continue in a time of crisis - hurricanes, blizzards, droughts, and explosions. 

The problem is that while the public employees are trained to operate in a crisis, they are not provided the tools and resources. We can discuss blame later, but those in authority, for a multitude of reasons failed to fund and build a SYSTEM to withstand the impact if a pandemic. They knew the storm was coming but they

• hate government and do not want to give it more authority
• want to keep taxes low because they valued something else
• they denied the science because it was inconsistent with their world political view
• their horizon of responsibility did not extent to next year(s)
• they did not have the will to do the right thing

COVID-19 No Bailout for You #2

Twice since the 1990's greedy corporate hoodlums took advantage of the bailouts. The Savings and Loan crisis and the Great Recession resulted in public money used for excessive  private gain.

• Executive bonuses greater than an entire American family of five make in a year.
• Leveraged buy-outs by corporate raiders using money that was not theirs
• Stock buy backs
• Political gifts to key members of congress who voted for the legislation.
• Shifting of personal profits off-shore to escape taxation on the gains

All this can be corrected with simple requirements by the gate keepers. Here is where we need the rules and regulations - not on grants to the small businesses. And if you do not like the requirements, tough. No one is making you take the money.

• No corporate political contributions
• No individual political contributions to PACS by six figure employees.
• No bonuses - you did not save the company, we the taxpayers saved your asses.
• No acquisitions.
• No stock buy backs for a decade
• All employees get a base of $17.50/hour, full health insurance, a retirement plan and 90% of the workers must work a minimum 32 hour week.*
• No increase in contracted workers so as to avoid the employment criteria.
• No off shore bank accounts.
• I'll think of some more, just give me time.

If you do not like the terms, tough. Go away.

 

*That is to ensure that employees are eligible for all benefits.

COVID-19 "95/5 Rule" Post #1

The federal and state COVID-19 response to assist small business is already fraught with major impediments. Government must approach the financial crisis with the 95/5 rule.  Assume that 95% will follow the rules and are not going to abuse the system. That means none of the traditional SBA, Commerce Department nonsense requiring extensive documentation, forms and requirements.

The money needs to go into the hands of these businesses. Now. A recovery that takes a year is no recovery.

Yes there will be fraud and theft. Save the handcuffs for the giant corporations:    

 

•         No executive bonuses for a decade
•         No stock buy backs
•         No corporate political contributions*

But for small businesses get the money into Ma and Pa's hands now. The fraud in assisting small businesses will pale in comparison to what the greedy did in the Savings and Loan Bailout and the Great Recession.

 

*Citizens United may allow corporate contributions but there is no problem denying federal money as a condition of a loan or grant.

 

Editor's note:  When I left office a year ago I decided not to comment on any public matter. COVID-19 is too important and so here is the start of a series of posts on the subject.

Confederate Monuments @ Forest Hill Cemetery Madison - Going, going, gone

Statement of Madison Mayor Paul Soglin on Removal of Confederate Memorials

from Forest Hill Cemetery

The removal of City owned monuments to confederate soldiers in Forest Hill Cemetery has minimal or no disruption to the cemetery itself.  There is no disrespect to the dead with the removal of the plaque and stone. 

The Civil War was an act of insurrection and treason and a defense of the deplorable practice of slavery.  The monuments in question were connected to that action and we do not need them on City property. 

 

Taking down monuments will not erase our shared history.  The Confederacy’s legacy will be with us, whether we memorialize it in marble or not.  I agree with other Mayors around the country also speaking out and taking action.  We are acknowledging there is a difference between remembrance of history and reverence of it.  In Madison, we join our brothers and sisters around the country to prove that we as a people are able to acknowledge, understand, reconcile, and most importantly, choose a better future for ourselves.

 

There should be no place in our country for bigotry, hatred, or violence against those who seek to unite our communities and our country.  That is why I instructed Forest Hills Cemetery staff to remove a confederate’s rest commemorative memorial.  There is a larger monument, which has not garnered as much attention, which will also be removed.

Where is Scott Walker on Charlottesville?

Now that Donald Trump has finally called out the KKK, neo-Nazis and white supremacists, virtually every responsible public official has made it clear where they stand on the events in Charlottesville.  As of this morning, we have still not heard from Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. 

Perhaps he has been too busy with Foxconn. 

Donald Trump It is Time To Name Names

Yesterday's Facebook post.

 

It is critical that violent hate groups such as the KKK, Nazis, and White Supremacists be identified and repudiated by all responsible elected officials starting with the president of the United States. Supporting an elected official, shall not provide cover to anyone who preaches hatred or violence or both.