Big Brown - A True Champion

Since the great match up between Affirmed and Alydar in 1978 I have steadfastly thrown out the possibility of any Kentucky Derby winner going on to win the Triple Crown. It is just too grueling a challenge to run three races at a 1 1/4, 1 3/16, and 1 1/2 miles in five weeks.

Horses, especially those going two turns, and two turns against such stiff competition need at least three weeks or more to recover from a race as demanding as the Kentucky Derby.

I was wrong about Big Brown needing more conditioning and experience as a prerequisite to his winning the Kentucky Derby. Those two races were monstrous, and I like other handicappers, refused to believe that they were a substitute for additional experience on the race track.

That said, I am a believer. Marring any injury, Big Brown should be the first Triple Crown Winner in thirty years.

Clearly this horse has the physical maturity and the stamina to defeat this crop of three year olds. There may be another talented three year old out there who can fill out by June but it is unlikely. Remember, three year olds are like teenagers - every few months is like another year. But while a lot of colts, including several who skipped the Kentucky Derby,  will grow from February to June, it unlikely that they can reach the level of Big Brown. With the Kentucky Derby, he has now run three consecutive races with outstanding speed figures, and those races had demanding paces to match.

Comments

[Dan]

I will believe it, when I see it, Paul.