Sarah Palin, John McCain, Mitt Romney and the Probabilities Game

The selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate is one of those logical choices once the probabilities are weighed and examined.

McCain handlers carefully ran over the contenders, put them on display before the focus groups, and looked at the numbers. With Mitt Romney, the best of the classical selections, the Republican ticket was likely to garner between 46 and 48% of the vote in November.

While this ticket would not result in a Democratic blowout, the chance for a November win was only about 4%.

While a respectable finish was likely, the prospects of a 4% chance to win in November was disheartening.

When Palin was added to the ticket some interesting things happened.

While the chances of a respectable finish declined and the possibility of a Democratic blowout significantly increased, the prospects for a McCain win also increased.

The McCain-Palin ticket has close to a 6% chance of capturing the White House. Compared to the 4% for a McCain-Romney ticket, that is a 50% improvement.

All of this makes sense for the McCain team. The problem is that the selection of Palin increase the possibility of a disastrous November for Republicans as it puts in jeopardy GOP candidates from the Congress to the state houses to the court houses.

author's note: I have no clue as the accuracy of these numbers. I made them up. The point is that Palin modestly increases the chance for McCain to win in November.

Comments

[Guy]

Paul,
I think you're missing one possibility here. What if the Palin choice was simply a place-holder to get through the convention? She satisfies the wingnuts and unifies the party for their big, but now interrupted by hurricane Gustav, show. Afterwards, she pulls a Muskie and withdraws for the good of the ticket and the party. She has two potential justifications. With infant in tow, she dramatically claims the demands of the campaign and then serving in Washington are too big a sacrifice to ask of her family. Or, the Troopergate ethics investigation heats up with unpleasant revelations and press and, while confidently predicting her complete vindication, selflessly withdraws because it becomes too big a distraction from the campaign. McCain is then free to name someone he really wants to have next to him: Lieberman; Ridge or even Romney, any of whom would have inflamed the Christian Right.
This explains her selection as well as anything else I've heard.

[Jeff]

The McCain strategy is now clear: the same as the Bush strategy. Get the Republican base excited for high turnout, and illegally suppress the turnout of the Democratic base, targeting vulnerable voting populations such as the young and the poor. Forget 6%, I'd say it's more like a 50% chance of McCain winning.

[Pete Gruett]

Paul, I'm astonished that you didn't run for president this year. Apparently, Palin is more qualified than Obama (and McCain) because she has "executive experience." Well you've got way more of that than she does. Sure Alaska's a state and Madison's a city but, in terms of population, Madison's a little less than half the size of Alaska and you were mayor way more than twice as long as she was governor. She can't match your international relations experience either. Alaska's close to Russia but, according to conservatives, Madison's it's own country/reality. You led an entire plane of existence for over a decade in hostile territory (we're "surrounded" by reality). You're a shoe-in!