The Democratic Party Nightmare and the 500 Pound Gorilla

When a  candidate loses an upset as Martha Coakley blew the U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts, there is plenty of blame to go around. Assessing responsibility is fine sport. The winner and loser are both in search of blood.

For those of us who wish to learn from the experience, and use it for success in future elections, concentrating on the real source of the defeat is instructive.

There are myriad of causes that led to over 50% of the Bay State voters electing Republican Scott Brown to fill the Senate seat vacated by the death of Ted Kennedy, but the most significant one, the 500 pound gorilla that trumped all others, was that Coakley was a horrible candidate and blew the campaign.

There are other reasons that contributed to the defeat, but if the Democrats focus on them they will be unprepared for next fall's congressional elections:

• Spending - this is one of the two issues that contributed to the Republican victory. Unfortunately for the Democrats, not all of the benefits of the economic stimulus plan are documented.
• Health care - the real victim here. This was a contributing factor but not decisive. Tragically, Coakley's campaign took down more than her and presented every Democrat with a interminable nightmare.
• The White House - declining Obama favorability numbers did not help Coakley, but the real villain was the failure to read the election and get Coakley off her butt. The White House had more at stake than Coakley - health care reform versus her career.
• Tea Baggers, Limbaugh, - There is no question that the constant barrage and pounding took its toll, but it only works against a weak or marginal candidate.

The good news is that the Democrats need not abandon their principles or health care reform. This election should root out their complacency and return them to the vigorous campaigning of 2008.

The bad news is that the Republicans are inspired; they can now take the Democrats off their game plan, and fund raising will flourish.

Every few years we hear the pundits declare that one political party or the other is dead and gone. Fortunately for both Republicans and Democrats, they have each other.

Comments

[murph]

"Every few years we hear the pundits declare that one political party or the other is dead and gone. Fortunately for both Republicans and Democrats, they have each other."

What a perfectly apt observation. Too right.

[anon]

Elections aren't horse races or basketball games, to call them upsets does a disservice to voters.

[wondering]

"but the most significant one, the 500 pound gorilla that trumped all others, was that Coakley was a horrible candidate and blew the campaign."

Well, that's not what the voters self-report, but, whatever.

[Pete Gruett]

The "spending" issue is a proxy for economic anxiety ramped up by the Republican noise machine so they could demagogue the recession without being called on causing it. Nobody cared about war spending or the difference between running continuing deficits when the economy is expanding as opposed to borrowing money once to stave off a depression. (It's spectacularly idiotic to think that stimulus spending is permanent given the fact that even a needed second round looks politically impossible.) Ask anybody who worries about "spending" to provide some details about the debt to GDP ratio and you'll get a blank stare and/or a Glenn Beck quote.

The catch 22 for Democrats is that they've ceded so much ground in the debate that they'll probably try to reign in spending at the expense of economic recovery which will just put them deeper in the hole. The party needs leadership with a spine and something more effective to counter the conservative bullhorn. What we'll probably get is a further retreat. Luckily, they can't demoralize the progressive base any more than they already have.

[anon]

The more I read about this election, the more bugged I get. There weren't myriad causes, there was one cause that motivated voters, the main cause most of the time: jobs. The economy. It stinks, and it's been stinking for what used to be the working poor and what used to be the middle class for the last 30 years, let alone those in deep poverty. And both parties have done their share to stink up the place. Yes, health care needs to be fixed, or at least improved. But for God's sakes, address poverty and jobs first. Without that, you can't address health, you can't address education, you can't address housing, you can't address anything.

P.S. And please, someone give David Brooks a game show and take his keyboard away.

[nonheroicvet]

I didn't pay any attention to this race until I heard on the news that the Democrat may lose the senate seat in Mass. When I first saw Martha Coakley speak I thought it was a SNL skit. Her voice and body language were dripping with entitlement and a smugness that would land your children in time out. I wonder if anyone in Mass noticed it also?

I can't believe how inbred the party leadership has become and as noted in a post above - spineless.

[Ty O'Mara]

I watched a minute of Coakley's concession speech. I didn't see or hear a lot of regret. For a democratic candidate to lose Ted Kennedy's vacant seat, it is quite a comment on the candidate.

Republicans as well as Democrats will be defeated because of their incumbency. I wish they all would see it that way, it could create a platform of common ground. Politics right now is in bad taste; too many people out of work. Scott Brown's got a new job, though. Let's see how many jobs he can create.

[Brian (neaguy)]

A large number of Brown voters oppose his policies. Apparently they were trying to send a message and not that they prefer Cosmo centerfolds.

Problem is, when both parties conspire with corporations to run the country, and as a result cause major problems in the lives of so many millions, Americans have no party of the people to turn to.

I am not at all surprised that Coakley lost. She probably spent too much time in Washington, DC courting health insurance lobbyists like Tommy Boggs, a major supporter.

In the end, it's a good thing she lost. Hopefully the so called health care reform legislation is dead, because, as the excellent Dr. Margaret Flowers, of Physicians for a National Health Program has correctly asserted, the bills in either house are worse than what we have now.

[Tim]

Poll after the election:

"The poll also upends the conventional understanding of health care's role in the election. A plurality of people who switched -- 48 -- or didn't vote -- 43 -- said that they opposed the Senate health care bill. But the poll dug deeper and asked people why they opposed it. Among those Brown voters, 23 percent thought it went "too far" -- but 36 percent thought it didn't go far enough and 41 percent said they weren't sure why they opposed it."

I see this as the major failure of the Obama administration. They have not explained effectively why this bill is important. Rather than jam through a 1,000 page bill, divide and conquer is the answer here. Get the prohibition on pre-existing conditions passed and effective immediately. Do another bill addressing technology and standards. Do another bill expanding Medicare to those who don't have employer-based insurance. Pick away at it in chunks that can be explained and that people will back and understand.

In a 1,000 page bill it's easy to find stuff to harp on, and claim there are death panels because nobody will take the time to dig through it to find out what's there. If you oppose a bill outlawing pre-existing conditions, you look foolish and in the pocket of the insurance industry.

[Lou]

I can't beleive the DNC couldn't get a better candidate than Coakley in there. How long have we been mourning Senator Kennedy's illness. Were we all in denial that he was mortal? The DNC should have been able to prepare a worthy candidate to step up and fill his shoes. Or is it that no one could fill that void so they allowed a Republican to step in for a term in hopes that by the end of the six years there would be no Kennedy comparisons?

[mgm]

Dems shoot the wounded. Now it's Coakley who was a bad candidate. Before it was Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine. Gee, maybe it's the message, not the messenger. The question is whether Harry Reid will retire before the voters of Nevada turn him out. Being leader is incompatible with serving state interests. Let's consider Tom Foley and Tom Daschle.

[Ty O'Mara]

Your first sentence has some truth to it; hard to quantify how much but I'll grant that it could be a lot. As far as the message being rejected, I'm not sure the voters understand the message. I have to agree with Tim&Paul, I think they make a great point. Democrats are not being agressive enough in their defense of their stategy. Right-wing political commentators and the healthcare lobby actually have the majority of people in this country convinced that healthcare for all Americans is a bad thing right now. We need a national referendum on whether spending more or spending less will be the best course of action. I still favor more, we've got to collect taxes and ease the situation for as many of our citizens as possible. The more people who get jobs should stimulate even more people getting jobs. President Obama showed his political side today, for sure, but the new bank regulations being presented are in total harmony with the voters-and common sense. Yes, you are right, Harry Reid should retire.

[Trav]

As yellow dog Democrat, it's easy for me to see what went down. The Democrats in the Senate made themselves look like a bunch of crooks. They sold out to big pharma, the health care industry and anybody else who was around. Let's buy off Ben Nelson and go along with Joe Leiberthing who insisted he would vote against expanding medicare, although he had been advocating it for years.

Instead of passing health care in the summer as the president asked them to do, they went out to recess and got the snot kicked out of them by the teabaggers. What did they think was going to happen!

It's like 1994 when the arrogant Democrats were stealing stamps and bouncing checks while they didn't get anything done. Do they think people are stupid and won't be watching?

[R.J.]

All of your reasons are a derivative of the health care take-over.
"Hey-hey, ho-ho, death panels have got to go." This is fun! Now, where my bongos at?