Handicapping the 77th AD Primary Horserace With Two Weeks To Go

Keeping in the Waxing America tradition of horserace analysis, here's the morning line on the crowded Wisconsin 77th Assembly District field. We've been tracking activity at the Westside Community Market, and once again last week there were five candidates working the crowd: Democrats Brett Hulsey, Dianne Hesselbein, Doug Zwank, and Fred Wade, along with the Green Party's Ben Manski. John Imes has not been present the last few weeks.

Summary: It's a crapshoot. With five Democrats running in the September 14 primary, a handful of votes could very well separate first from last. Hulsey certainly has the most visibility and officeholder endorsements, but Hesselbein and Zwank have each held several local offices and each has a significant base of support. Wade and Imes are no slouches either, and both have considerable qualifications and experience that would be an asset in the Assembly. I've been impressed with all five when we've talked at the Westside Market and am certain that any one of them would, after a bit of seasoning and some preparation, be able to fill Spencer Black's large legislative shoes.

John Nichols has good things to say about all of the candidates, even Republican Dave Redick:

Personal ties and knowledge of the candidates can make choosing among them difficult; indeed, I've run into some folks who have officially endorsed one candidate but privately admit they plan to vote for someone else.

Ultimately, however, part of what makes the race in the 77th so exciting is that the candidates are rooted in the community, connected and engaged. It's a great race, and it keeps getting better.

Latest developments: teachers' unions.  AFT-Wisconsin endorsed Dianne Hesselbein, and Madison Teachers, Inc' s endorsed Ben Manski. The AFT nod makes Hesselbein a front-runner along with Hulsey, and the surprising MTI backing makes dark horse Manski a possibility, although still a long shot.  Nichols thinks the MTI move is significant:

Manski is still a long way from the Assembly. No Green has ever won a legislative seat in Wisconsin, and few have won elsewhere.

But this key endorsement suggests that Manski will be a factor in the fall, and that, given the right set of circumstances, he could pull off an upset not just of the eventual Democratic nominee but of political expectations in general.

What is the right set of circumstances? If Hulsey wins the Democratic primary, Manski could attract enough of the supporters of the other four that don't like some part of Hulsey's history to squeak in. However, at this point any of the other four could win the primary, and any one of them could unite enough Democrats so that Manski's very professional campaign could be easily swamped. But Nichols is right; Manski is not an impossibility. If the Republicans take the Assembly, Manski's ability to yell "Bullshit!" loudly and often could be very useful.

If Madison were in England, and you went to your local bookie, you could probably get a bet down with odds something like these:

Hulsey: 8-5

Hesselbein: 9-5

Zwank: 3-1

Wade: 7-2

Imes: 5-1

Manski: 10-1

Redick: 30-1

There are still a lot of undecided voters who will probably bring a quarter with them to the polls and let George Washington decide.

- Barry Orton

 

Comments

[Ben Manski]

Hi Barry,

I met David Olson this morning at the Middleton Chamber of Commerce breakfast. He seems to be working hard, and may be effective in capturing some conservative votes.

Dave Redick wasn't there. Look forward to meeting him as well at some point.

Fred, John, Diane, and Brett were all on hand. Everyone had their game face on. But they all -- we all -- are a tired bunch. Last lap, guys. And then I'll see you on the 15th!

[antpoppa]

Manski faces the interesting dilemma discussed in Orwell, and Einstein’s ‘Why I am a Socialist .‘
"Large sections of the middle class are being gradually proletarianized; but the important point is that they do not, at any rate not in the first generation, adopt a proletarian outlook," Orwell wrote in 1937 during the last economic depression. "Here I am, for instance, with a bourgeois upbringing and a working-class income.”

The problem lies with convincing the middle and upper class that despite their social position their economic position is tied with the working class. Now, despite being crushed by economic royalty, the middle class still is anti- working class, and chooses Fascism over a social democracy.
Rather seeking environmental, peaceful, and anti- imperialistic solutions that lead to a social unity, the left, being afraid of social stigmatization, defines candidates like Manski and McKinney, Nader and Kucinich as ‘crazy’ and throw in with a Democratic party that backs all of our present evils.